## Agricultural decision analysis |

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### Contents

Probability | 17 |

Revision of Probabilities | 50 |

Concepts of Utility and Nonlinear Preference | 65 |

Copyright | |

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### Common terms and phrases

activity net revenues Agric agricultural alternative appraisal approach approximation assessment assumed assumption attributes Bayes strategy Bernoulli's principle beta distribution cash flow certainty equivalent Chapter choice conditional consequences constraints cost covariance curve decision analysis decision maker decision problem decision theory decision tree denotes discrete discussed dominance Econ efficient set elicitation equation estimate evaluation example expected profit expected utility farm planning farmer Figure forecast fractiles implies indifference investment involving kg/ha linear programming lottery marginal maximization mean and variance method multiattribute normal distribution objective function outcomes payoff portfolio possible posterior probabilities preference preferentially independent present value prior optimal act prior probabilities prob probability distribution procedure production project combinations quadratic risk programming random variables relevant risk aversion risky prospect sample Section sequence simulation solution specified stochastic efficiency stochastic programming subjective probability Table theorem tion uncertainty utility function utility value wheat yield zero