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HI Empirical Estimates of Potential Output and the Output Gap
Probabilities of permanent and temporary output losses
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aggregate demand Apel and Jansson assumed autoregressive process Beveridge-Nelson decomposition bivariate unobserved component Blanchard and Quah BN decomposition business cycle business sector capital stock Clarida and Gali component of output cyclical component demand shock detrending techniques economic theory end-sample biases equation estimates of potential Estimating Potential Output exogenous Figure growth rates Hodrick-Prescott Filter HP filter I I I I I I identify Kalman filter matrix measure NAIRU NAWRU nominal shocks Okun's Law Output and Output output growth percent in 1998 permanent and cyclical permanent and temporary permanent and transitory Phillips curve potential growth potential level production function approach rate of unemployment real exchange rate Schwarz criterion Staff estimates stochastic trend structural shocks supply shocks Sveriges Riksbank Sweden system unobserved components temporary component total factor productivity trend components trend estimation trend level trend output unemployment rate univariate unobserved component method unobserved components approach unobserved components model unobserved variables vector