## An Application of Decision Theory to the Selection of Research and Development Projects |

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### Contents

17 iBLiOGRAPHY | 17 |

THE DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNIQUES FOR APPLYiNG | 27 |

Technique | 46 |

11 other sections not shown

### Common terms and phrases

Accounting Profits analysis applied research phase Assume assumptions average beverage blue balls calculated cash flow choice CTS executives Curve date of technical decision criterion decision maker decision model decision problems decision recommendation decision theory decision tree development phase discussed Economic Success ENPV evaluate expected net present expected value experimental film active device firm hybrid circuitry industry integrated circuits market share Mean Estimate Midmountain mills per ounce monetary value scale Operations Research ounce packaged payoffs present value president prior setters probability density function probability mass function probability theory profit project organization QUOBECA project rain raw materials cost Relative Numbers research and development Research Director sales volume estimates Schlaifer selection selling price semiconductor chip project shown in Figure standard lottery subjective data subjective decision techniques subjective probability functions Subjective Probability Mass Table technical success thin film active uncertain event uncertainty value theory wager Weight Assigned writer