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A COLLECTION OF AGGREGATIVE ECONOMIC FORECASTS
SHORTRUN VARIATIONS IN FORECASTERS PERFORMANCE
SUMMARY MEASURES AND TYPES OF ERROR
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actual and predicted actual changes actual values annual forecasts average errors bias billion dollars business cycle change errors change forecasts Changes and Errors Changes in GNP Chart column comparisons Components of GNP correlation cyclical declines decreases directional errors Error of predicted Errors in Forecasts estimates extrapolative models false signals fore forecast errors forecast sets forecasts of GNP forecasts proper GNP and industrial GNP forecasts government expenditures Gross National Product Gross private domestic increases individual forecasts industrial production forecasts Industrial production index intervals intraforecast changes Jacob Mincer level forecasts mean absolute errors Mean Errors mean square errors months multiperiod forecasts National Bureau numbers of observations over-all overestimates periods covered Personal consumption expenditures plant and equipment predicted changes private domestic investment ranks ratios record relative root mean square set F smaller Span of Forecast summary measures tion turning points turning-point errors Type of Error underestimation variables