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An Ecological Model
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aggregate measures assessor Ayton belief bias D2 biased reference classes Bjorkman calibration curve calibration score computed condition of Study confidence judgments confidence scale correct answer discrimination easy items ecological cue validities ecological models ecological validity Egon Brunswik ence error variance expect Figure Fischhoff frequentistic Gigerenzer half-range hard-easy effect heuristics ility individual differences informal item selection informal selection condition informally selected almanac informally selected item Internal Cue Theory internal cue validities Juslin knowledge items Koriat large number levels Lichtenstein mean confidence miscalibration natural environment observed over/underconfidence overconfidence bias overconfidence phenomenon Prediction present thesis Probabilistic Mental Models proportion correct random realism of confidence reference class problem relative frequency relevant representative item sample representative item sets representative selection condition representativeness heuristic response response bias sample cue validities Section selected almanac items selected item set selectors Sniezek solution probability subjective probability suggests target variables Theory of Probabilistic tion underconfidence Wright Yates zero
Judgment and Decision Making: Neo-brunswikian and Process-tracing Approaches
Peter Juslin,Henry Montgomery
No preview available - 2007