An Economic Model of Fertility, Sex, and Contraception
When the desire for an additional child is given, a couple has only two ways of influencing the probability of pregnancy: through sexual activity and through use of contraception. Besides affecting the probability of conception, sex yields pleasure in itself whereas contraception usually yields some disutility. We postulate a utility function over two periods (present and near future) with children, consumption, sex and contraception as arguments. Since a childbirth is an uncertain event, couples are
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ESTIMATING THE MODEL
ANALYSIS OF QUARTER SAMPLE
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additional child soon Age of woman analysis assume attitude towards becoming attitude towards pregnancy becoming pregnant soon Bureau of Statistics cent level Central Bureau ceteris paribus Coeff coefficients coital frequency condom contraceptive effectiveness corner solution de/dy desire different from zero dS/dy dummy variable economic endogenous variables equation estimates exogenous expected utility explanatory variables F-distribution F-statistic factors fecundity Fertility Survey frequency of intercourse full income full sample hypothesized included income effect increases infecund Kmenta linear live children marginal utility marriage duration methods of contraception Namboodiri negative effect non-linear Norwegian number of children number of live open birth interval optimal ordinary least squares parameters parity period positive effect pregnancy attitude pregnancy next month price of children probability of conception problems quarter sample regression in table respondents second-order condition sex and contraception sexual activity significant effect St.error standard errors subsection three-quarter sample total expected fertility utility function utility of sex values yields