## An Essay on the Theory of Economic Prediction |

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### Contents

Preface to Original Edition | 9 |

The Prediction Model | 22 |

The Improvement of Prediction | 48 |

Copyright | |

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### Common terms and phrases

adjustments alternative analysis assumed autoregressive autoregressive process average absolute bill 1958 dollars bill current dollars billion Brookings Model Business Cycle calculations coefficients computed construction Consumer expenditures covariance matrix cyclical dependent variables diction dynamic Econometric Model Econometrica economic prediction endogenous equation system error of forecast esti estimation theory evaluated ex-ante forecasts ex-ante prediction ex-post forecasts ex-post prediction exogenous variables extrapolation final demand final form forecast error formula GNP bill improve independent industry initial conditions Inventory investment investment bill 1958 iterated TSPC estimates iteration method lag values lagged variables least squares microeconomic minimize multiplier obtained one-period simulations parameter estimates prediction error prediction intervals prediction period preliminary forecasts priori information problem procedure production function quarter random errors reduced form regressands regression residuals RMSE sample period sectors solution standard error statistical stochastic structural equations Table tion tolerance intervals TSLS estimates Wharton-EFU Model