An introduction to decision theory
This up-to-date introduction to decision theory offers comprehensive and accessible discussions of decision-making under ignorance and risk, the foundations of utility theory, the debate over subjective and objective probability, Bayesianism, causal decision theory, game theory, and social choice theory. No mathematical skills are assumed, and all concepts and results are explained in non-technical and intuitive as well as more formal ways. There are over 100 exercises with solutions, and a glossary of key terms and concepts. An emphasis on foundational aspects of normative decision theory (rather than descriptive decision theory) makes the book particularly useful for philosophy students, but it will appeal to readers in a range of disciplines including economics, psychology, political science and computer science.
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The decision matrix
Decisions under ignorance
Decisions under risk
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according alternative argument assign assumption Bayesian best outcome better Chapter choice node choose coin completeness axiom condition confess cooperate course decision matrix decision problem decision rule decision theory decisions under risk degree of belief example expected monetary value expected utility principle explained finite formalisation Furthermore Gamble game theory given Hence Imagine independence axiom individual preference orderings interval scale lands heads large number lottery matter maximising expected utility means minimax mixed strategy money-pump Nash equilibrium Neumann and Morgenstern's non-cooperative normative objects option pair paradox Pareto Pareto principle Petersburg paradox play possible outcome precise principle of insufficient principle of maximising prisoner's dilemma probability axioms ratio scale rational decision maker rational players real numbers risk aversion Savage's social choice social choice theory social preference ordering subjective probability Suppose Table theorem theorists ticket toss units of utility utility function zero-sum games