An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis

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Scarecrow Press, 2008 - Political Science - 219 pages
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Since the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on United States soil, the intelligence community has been scrutinized on how it performs its functions. Consequently, the 9/11 Commission made several recommendations on how to improve the quality of intelligence analysis. Those charges and the United States' involvement in a war in Iraq have spawned additional charges of the politicization of intelligence. All this is being played out as the Intelligence Community has reformed and reconfigured itself with newly created departments supported by an expanded and inexperienced workforce that was never envisioned when the intelligence community was formally established in 1947. First published in the 1970s, the classic book An Introduction to Intelligence Research and Analysis was used by intelligence analysts to track and monitor the Communist threat. Although today's environment has changed considerably since the Cold War, intelligence analysts still need to understand the basics of intelligence analysis. The book focuses on how to do research, what qualities are needed to be an intelligence analyst, and what methods can be employed to help in producing products. To avoid politicization, intelligence analysts should strive to become more transparent in their methodology of how they arrived at their conclusions. Intelligence Research and Analysis provides several methods to assist in that end.
 

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Contents

SUMMARY
90
Classification A Basic Step in Analysis
93
WHY CLASSIFY?
95
A BASIC TYPE OF CLASSIFICATION
97
TWO MEANINGS OF CLASSIFY
99
THE STEPS IN CLASSIFICATION
100
TESTING THE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
102
CLASSIFICATIONS AS ABSTRACTS OF REALITY WITH PARTS DELETED
103

SUMMARY
14
Research A Description of the Activity and the Analyst
17
RESEARCH AS A PURPOSEFUL ACTIVITY
19
RESEARCH AS A SYSTEMATIC ACTIVITY
20
RESEARCH AS AN ACTIVITY THAT CONTRIBUTES NEW KNOWLEDGE
21
TIME CONSTRAINTS
22
CONTROL OF VARIABLES
23
Unknown Quality of Data
24
Emphasis on Security
25
Utility
26
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE INTELLIGENCE RESEARCHER
27
Reasoning Ability
28
Accuracy
29
Intellectual Honesty
30
Skepticism
31
Detachment
32
Imagination
33
SUMMARY
35
Types of Inquiry and the Nature of Proof
38
DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH
39
NATURE OF PROOF IN DESCRIPTIVE RESEARCH
40
NATURE OF PROOF IN PREDICTIVE RESEARCH
41
THEORY VALIDATION IN A CONFLICT SITUATION
42
MODELS AND THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD
43
THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD IN NONSCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
45
PREDICTIVE MODEL VALIDATION IN INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH
46
SEMANTIC PROBLEMS OF TECHNICAL TERMS
48
The Relation of Induction and Deduction to Theory Building in Intelligence Research
51
DEFINING INDUCTION
52
DEFINING DEDUCTION
54
INDUCTION AND DEDUCTION IN THE HYPOTHETICODEDUCTIVE PROCESS
55
SUMMARY
56
Planning the Research Program Problem Definition
58
SOURCES AND ORIGINS OF RESEARCH PROJECTS
59
IS THERE A NEED?
60
TERMS OF REFERENCE
61
OPERATIONAL DEFINITIONS
62
DETERMINING THE FEASIBILITY OF THE APPROACH
63
Capabilities and Interests of the Researcher
64
FeasibilityrThe Allinclusive Issue
65
THE FIRST BUT NOT FINAL PHASE OF THE PLANNING ACTIVITY
66
Figure 5I Steps in the Problem Definition Phase SUMMARY
67
Planning the Research Program Locating Information
69
INTENTIONAL AND UNINTENTIONAL TRANSMITTERS OF FACTS
70
DATA SOURCES AND POTENTIAL FOR BIAS
71
PEOPLE OBJECTS EMANATIONS AND RECORDS
73
Objects
74
Emanations
75
Records
76
SUMMARY
77
Foundations of Analysis Some Basic Concepts
79
ANALYSIS
80
SEVEN GENERAL RULES FOR VERIFICATION
81
CAUSALITY AND CORRELATION
83
CANONS OF CAUSALITY
84
A NEBULOUS DISTINCTION
88
Basic Quantitative Techniques for Research and Analysis
105
STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
106
MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS
107
DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
108
MEASURES OF CENTRAL TENDENCY
110
MEASURES OF DISPERSION
111
AN EXAMPLE OF THE USE OF DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS
115
SAMPLING THEORY
117
STRATIFIED SAMPLING
120
INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY
122
PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
123
NORMAL DISTRIBUTION
124
BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
125
EXPONENTIAL DISTRIBUTION
126
SUMMARY
127
Descriptive Analysis Methodologies
129
THE PERENNIAL ANALYTIC MODEL
130
LINK ANALYSIS
132
SOCIOMETRY
134
GAME THEORY
136
WAR GAMING
140
LINEAR PROGRAMMING
143
REGRESSION AND CORRELATION
147
GRAPHIC DEPICTIONS AS AIDS TO ANALYSIS
153
BAR GRAPHS FOR COMPARISON
155
TERRAIN PROFILING
158
TREND ANALYSIS
160
SUMMARY
162
Prediction Forecasting and Haruspicy
164
PROBABILISTIC STATEMENTS AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP TO TYPES OF PHENOMENA
165
ASSUMPTIONSPRAGMATIC AND PROBLEMATIC
166
DELPHI TECHNIQUES
168
GENERATION OF ALTERNATIVE FUTURES
170
EXTRAPOLATION
171
BAYESIAN ANALYSIS
176
PROBABILITY DIAGRAMS
180
PSYCHOHISTORICAL AND PSYCHOLINGUISTIC ANALYSIS
183
MORPHOLOGICAL ANALYSIS
185
MODELS AND MODEL BUILDING
188
CYBERNETIC MODELS AND SYSTEM DYNAMICS AS AIDS IN FORECASTING
190
SUMMARY
193
Preparing the Report
197
USE OUTLINES APPROPRIATELY
199
SCHEDULE WORK SESSIONS
200
USE THE ACTIVE RATHER THAN PASSIVE VOICE
201
WRITE AT A LEVEL APPROPRIATE FOR THE READERS
202
REVIEW AND REVISION
203
SUMMARY
205
An Example of a SmallScale Intelligence Study
207
PROBLEM DEFINITION
208
HYPOTHESIS FORMULATION
210
DATA COLLECTION
211
VALIDATION
215
Index
217
About the Author and Editor
219
Copyright

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About the author (2008)

Jerome Clauser is the author of several publications on intelligence education and training. His previous books include Voice of the United Nations Command: A description of a strategic radio broadcasting psychological operation; and An overview of collateral psychological operations in the Republic of Korea.

Jan Goldman is the author or editor of numerous articles and books on intelligence to include Ethics of Spying: A Reader for the Intelligence Professional, and Words of Intelligence: A Dictionary. He is the editor for Scarecrow Professional Intelligence Education Series.

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