An open-ocean marine fog development and forecast model for Ocean Weather Station Papa
Marine fog forecasts during the summer period in the North Pacific are not made presently with any acceptable degree of accuracy. Objective fog development models exist and are used with some success for localized coastal regions of the western U.S.; scarcity of accurate data has hindered creation of a reliable open-ocean model. The Eulerian single-station approach, utilizing a segment of the complete accurate data of Ocean Weather Station Papa (50N, 145W) is applied in this study to an objective marine fog forecasting model. The time-series study of significant atmospheric variables at OWS Papa, when coupled with a chronological synoptic overview, delineates accurately fog/no fog sequences in the summer months of 1973 and 1977. Actual observed fog situations are evaluated by the general model and presented in relation to open-ocean fog indices, NOAA 5 satellite coverage and synoptic history. The open-ocean forecast model is tested on an independent data set for the month of July 1975 at OWS Papa, with favorable results. The research delineates four required indices that must all be positive to forecast fog. These indices, when plotted daily in the region of OWS Papa allow a single station to predict, with some confidence out to twenty-four hours, the occurrence of advection fog. (Author).
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accurate advection fog advection index air mass air temperature anticyclone August l977 climatology CN CN CN o CN coastal fog Code cr _o cr UJ decrease delineated dew point temperature Direction and Wind favorable fog development model fog formation fog model fog periods forecast fog forecast model frontal fog Gulf of Alaska Horizontal Visibility intensified inversion base Inversion Height INVHT TEMP layer Louis Clark Marine fog forecasts millibars Moisture Index N.C. of NCC Naval Postgraduate School non-frontal fog NWSD Asheville Ocean Weather Station Oceanography open ocean fog OWS Papa Pacific Standard Postgraduate School Monterey Q O Q RAOB recording station satellite coverage Sea Level Pressure sea surface pressure sea surface temperature Stage stratus subtropical high TEMP AND MOIST Temperature Index U.S. Naval Academy UJ cr UJ Q UJ UJ unfavorable variables and indices Weather Station Papa Wind Direction Wind Speed