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Analysis by Evaluation of Complete Strategies
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A. H. Mallon's Act Event act fork actually analyze assess his probabilities assessment gamble backward induction base end position bracket medians branches compute conditional distribution consequences contextual cash flow cost criterion cumulative function cutoff date decide decision diagram decision maker decision maker's certainty decision maker's mathematical decision maker's preference decision problem definite terminal value denote directly assessed equal equivalent urn example Exercise forecast fractile grouped approximation joint distribution joint event judgment label linear function liquid assets long-run relative frequency maker's certainty equivalent maker's mathematical expectation Mallon mass function mutually exclusive events nonmonetary assets number of units occur partial cash flow possible terminal values possible values preference curve probability distribution production reference gamble reference values result risk aversion risk premium Section shown in Figure stampings standard drawing standard gamble strategy suppose Table terminal event fork total cash flows uncertain partial cash uncertain quantity uncertain terminal value unconditional standard chance uq's