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Special Topics in Diagramming and Analysis
Chances of Events and Likings for Consequences
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actually analysis analyze assess his probability assessment gamble assign average balls Bernoulli process bracket medians branches businessman certainty equivalent Column compute conditional distribution conditional probability consequences cost criterion decide decision diagram decision maker decision problem defined demand denote diagram in Figure directly assessed equal equiprobable sampling equivalent urn estimate evaluation date example Exercise forecast fractiles given grouped approximation joint event labelled liquid assets Mallon mathematical expectation mutually exclusive events nonmonetary assets number of units oooo oooo oooo partial cash flow particular population possible values posterior distribution posterior mass function posterior probabilities preference curve prior distribution prob probability diagram probability distribution random numbers reference gamble result risk aversion sample outcome sample statistics sampling with replacement Section shown in Figure simply stampings standard drawing standard gamble strategy suppose Table terminal act terminal event fork tion total cash flow trial uncertain quantity uncertain terminal value uncertainty UQ's