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The Second Simple Decision
The Meaning of the Results
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A. H. Mallon's act fork acts and events actually analyze assign average balls base end position Bernoulli process bracket medians branches businessman certainty equivalent compute conditional distribution conditional probability cost criterion cumulative function decide decision diagram decision maker decision maker's preference decision problem definite terminal value demand denote diagram in Figure directly assessed equal equiprobable sampling equivalent urn estimate evaluation date example Exercise forecast fractile fraction labelled likelihood function liquid assets Mallon mutually exclusive events nonmonetary assets number of units oooo oooo oooo partial cash flow particular population possible values posterior distribution preference curve prior distribution prob probability diagram probability distribution production prototype random numbers reference gamble relative frequency result risk aversion risk premium Section shown in Figure simply stampings standard chance standard drawing standard gamble strategy suppose Table terminal event fork tion total cash flow uncertain quantity uncertain terminal value uncertainty unconditional UQ's