Analytical Models For Decision-Making
Health care systems are complex and, as a result, it is often unclear what the effects of changes in policy or service provision might be. At the same time, resources for health care tend to be in short supply, which means that public health practitioners have to make difficult decisions. This book describes the quantitative and qualitative methods that can help decision-makers to structure and clarify difficult problems and to explore the implications of pursuing different options.
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activity approach assumptions beds beneﬁts branch budget build calculated cell cent chance node changes Chapter cognitive map column concept constraints costs criteria criterion cycle day surgery Decision Analysis decision areas decision makers decision options decision problem decision tree deﬁned deﬁnition difﬁcult disease distribution DRGs effects efﬁciency estimates ex-smokers example expected utility factors Feedback Figure ﬁgures ﬁnd ﬁrst ﬁve ﬁxed ﬂows formulae game theory health care health services hip replacement hospital impact factor in-patient inﬂuence involved judgements length of stay levels lives saved Markov Markov property matrix methods microsimulation needs assessment number of lives objectives Operational Research outcomes output parameters patients payoff payoff matrix planning population possible preference probabilities programme queue queuing theory random numbers rationality represented robustness Rosenhead scenarios scores sensitivity analysis simulation Smoker tree speciﬁc spreadsheet Table treated treatment types uncertainty values variables varicose vein weights