Annual Energy Outlook 2011: With Projections to 2035

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Government Printing Office, Jun 14, 2011 - Science - 235 pages
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The projections in the Energy Information Administration's (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook 2011 (AEO2011) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2011 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies. But AEO2011 is not limited to the Reference case. It also includes 57 sensitivity cases (see Appendix E, Table E1), which explore important areas of uncertainty for markets, technologies, and policies in the U.S. energy economy. Key results highlighted in AEO2011 include strong growth in shale gas production, growing use of natural gas and renewables in electric power generation, declining reliance on imported liquid fuels, and projected slow growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions even in the absence of new policies designed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. AEO2011 also includes in-depth discussions on topics of special interest that may affect the energy outlook. They include: impacts of the continuing renewal and updating of Federal and State laws and regulations; discussion of world oil supply and price trends shaped by changes in demand from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development or in supply available from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries; an examination of the potential impacts of proposed revisions to Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards for light-duty vehicles and proposed new standards for heavy-duty vehicles; the impact of a series of updates to appliance standard alone or in combination with revised building codes; the potential impact on natural gas and crude oil production of an expanded offshore resource base; prospects for shale gas; the impact of cost uncertainty on construction of new electric power plants; the economics of carbon capture and storage; and the possible impact of regulations on the electric power sector under consideration by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Some of the highlights from those discussions are mentioned in this Executive Summary. Readers interested in more detailed analyses and discussions should refer to the "Issues in focus" section of this report. I
 

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Contents

Coalfired plant retirements in alternative cases 20102035
4
Legislation and regulations
5
Introduction
6
Renewable portfolio standards in the 30 States with current mandates
8
Issues in focus
17
Introduction
18
Unconventional lightduty vehicle types
26
Vehicle categories for the HDV standards
30
Residential delivered energy consumption per capita in four cases 19902035
64
Efficiency gains for selected residential equipment in three cases 2035
65
Commercial delivered energy consumption per capita in four cases 19902035
66
Efficiency gains for selected commercial equipment in three cases 2035
67
Industrial delivered energy consumption by application 20092035
68
Cumulative growth in value of shipments by industrial subsector in three cases 20092035
69
Industrial consumption of fuels for use as feedstocks by fuel type 20092035
70
Average fuel economy of new lightduty vehicles in five cases 19802035
71

Average onroad fuel economy of medium and heavy heavyduty vehicles in two cases 20052035
31
Residential and commercial delivered energy consumption in four cases 20052035
32
Residential delivered energy savings in three cases 20102035
34
Technically recoverable undiscovered U S offshore oil and natural gas resources assumed in two cases
36
First year of available offshore leasing in two cases
37
Natural gas prices production imports and consumption in five cases 2035
39
Additions to U S generating capacity by fuel type in five cases 20092035
41
U S electricity prices in five cases 20052035
42
Commercialscale CCS projects operating in 2010
43
CO2 injection volumes in the Reference case 20052035
44
CO2 injection volumes in the GHG Price Economywide case 20052035
45
Transport Rule emissions targets 2012 and 2014
46
Natural gas prices in the Reference and High Ultimate Shale Recovery cases 20052035
49
Coalfired plant retirements in nine cases 20102035
50
Electricity generation by fuel in nine cases 2009 and 2035
51
Cumulative capacity additions in the Reference and GHG Price Economywide cases 20102035
52
Market trends
57
Average annual growth rates of real GDP labor force and productivity in three cases 20092035
58
Sectoral composition of industrial output growth rates in three cases 20092035
59
World energy consumption by region 19902035
60
Average annual world oil prices in three cases 19802035
61
Unconventional resources as a share of total world liquids production in three cases 2009 and 2035
62
Primary energy use by enduse sector 20092035
63
Market penetration of new technologies for lightduty vehicles 2035
72
U S electricity demand growth 19502035
73
Electricity generation capacity additions by fuel type 20102035
74
Electricity sales and power sector generating capacity 19492035
75
Electricity generating capacity at U S nuclear power plants in two cases 2009 2020 and 2035
76
Nonhydropower renewable electricity generation capacity by source 20092035
77
Annual average lower 48 wellhead and Henry Hub spot market prices for natural gas 19902035
78
Natural gas production by source 19902035
79
Lower 48 onshore natural gas production by region 2009 and 2035
80
Liquid fuels consumption by sector 19902035
81
Domestic crude oil production by source 19902035
82
Net import share of U S liquid fuels consumption in three cases 19902035
83
U S motor gasoline and diesel fuel consumption 20002035
84
Coal production by region 19702035
85
Average annual minemouth coal prices by region 19902035
86
Change in annual U S coal consumption by end use in two cases 20092035
87
Sulfur dioxide emissions from electricity generation 20002035
88
Comparison with other projections
91
Economic growth
92
Liquid fuels
100
Notes and sources
106
Figures Executive summary 1 U S liquids fuel consumption 19702035 2
107
Natural gas wellhead prices in three cases 20052035 22
108

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