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95 percent confidence action limit alternatives analysis ANOVA appropriate approximately normal base period basic outcomes Bayes act bivariate Calculate called Chapter column component conclude H0 confidence coefficient confidence limits Construct data set decision problem decision rule degrees of freedom denoted E(Yh equal error terms expected payoff expected value Explain exponential forecast frequency distribution given Hence illustrates independent variables index series infinite population Interpret interval estimate measure median moving average multinomial population normal distribution Note obtain parameter percent confidence interval percentile plot point estimate Poisson population mean prediction interval price index price relatives probability distribution procedure proportion random variable Refer to Problem regression function residuals sample mean sample size sample space sampling distribution selected shipment simple linear regression simple random sample SSTO standard deviation standard normal statistically independent Table Theorem tion trend two-sided Type