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aggregate intermediate APEC Asia Asian Competitive Devaluation Average output price balance of trade bilateral trade c.i.f. Price capital China composite good price Computable General Equilibrium Constant elasticity consumer price consumption cost function deficit demand functions Domestic Product Dupont Circle elasticity of substitution endogenous exchange rate changes EXP9 f.o.b. Price Figure Fred Bergsten function of region HDIr impact increase the likelihood Institute for International intermediate inputs International Economics international shipping industry investment isr isr Korea macro closure Marcus Noland Melo nominal and real numeraire official rate parameters partner country percent level PFfr Price Equations price index primary factor production tax real exchange rate region r I X R region r R(2l regression relative price reminbi sector share Shephard's lemma Sherman Robinson simulate specified Stock market index supply shock swap rate Table TARIFF trade balance trade conflict trade flow trade partners variables Wang