Assumption-Based Planning: A Tool for Reducing Avoidable Surprises
Unwelcome surprises in the life of any organization can often be traced to the failure of an assumption that the organization's leadership didn't anticipate or had "forgotten" it was making. Assumption-based planning (ABP) is a tool for identifying as many as possible of the assumptions underlying the plans of an organization and bringing those assumptions explicitly into the planning process.This book presents a variety of techniques for rooting out those vulnerable, crucial assumptions that, through familiarity or other reasons, have gotten buried in one's thinking. The book also presents steps for monitoring all the vulnerable assumptions of a plan, for taking actions to control those vulnerable assumptions where possible, and for preparing the organization for the potential failure of those assumptions where control is not possible.
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The essence of AssumptionBased Planning
How does AssumptionBased Planning work?
What is the valueadded of ABP?
Who has used ABP and how did it face?
What are ABPs Strengths and weaknesses?
A taxonomy of assumptions
The Taxonomic tree of assumptions
Other characteristics of assumptions
Types of shaping action
Identifying existing shaping actions
Techniques for developing new shaping actions
Step 5 developing hedging actions
Definition of hedging actions
Selling hedging actions
Identifying existing hedging actions
Developing hedging actions using scenarios
Step 1 identifying assumptions
Where to look for assumptions
General aspects of identifying assumptions
Techniques for identifying assumptions
Which technique to use when
How many assumptions to identify
Step 2 identifying loadbearing vulnerable assumptions
Identifying loadbearing assumptions
Identifying vulnerable assumptions
Ranking the loadbearing vulnerable assumptions
How many loadbearing vulnerable assumptions will there be?
Step 3 identifying signposts
Definition of signpost
Concepts similar to signposts
How important is important?
Techniques for identifying signposts
Linking signposts and warning times
Step 4 developing shaping actions
Definition of shaping action
Developing hedging actions without using scenarios
Guarding against underhedging
Integrating hedging actions into a plan
Hedging actions and replanning
The art of conducting ABP
Creating the general setup
Identifying loadbearing vulnerable assumptions
Agreeing on signposts
Beyond ABP as a postplanning tool
Using ABP during planning
An example of ABTArmy NCO leader development
AssumptionBased Planning and the planning literature
Other editions - View all
ABP's aimpoints approach asked Assumption-Based Planning Assumption-Based Thinking assumptions underlying availability heuristic broken assumptions Chapter combinatorial explosion concepts conjunction fallacy contingency actions contingency plans Corporate Strategy Board credibility decision analysis detail developing hedging actions Discovery-Driven Planning discussion documentation Driving Force environmental scanning example explicit fail future given plan goal identifying assumptions identifying load-bearing identifying signposts identifying the assumptions implicit assumptions issues journalist's questions judgments lemonade stand load-bearing and vulnerable load-bearing assumptions Margot means military monitoring ning one-sided vulnerabilities organization organization's plans participants plan's planned actions planners planning literature planning process plausible possible potential problem RAND Rationalizing a plan replanning require Rip Van Winkle risk robust Royal Dutch/Shell SAST scenario planning shaping actions shaping and hedging specific Step strategic planning sumptions techniques for identifying theories of causation tions tool U.S. Army uncertain uncertainties underlying a plan vulnerable assumptions warning worst-case