Bayesian Population Analysis Using WinBUGS: A Hierarchical Perspective

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Academic Press, 2012 - Science - 535 pages
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Bayesian statistics has exploded into biology and its sub-disciplines, such as ecology, over the past decade. The free software program WinBUGS, and its open-source sister OpenBugs, is currently the only flexible and general-purpose program available with which the average ecologist can conduct standard and non-standard Bayesian statistics.



  • Comprehensive and richly commented examples illustrate a wide range of models that are most relevant to the research of a modern population ecologist
  • All WinBUGS/OpenBUGS analyses are completely integrated in software R
  • Includes complete documentation of all R and WinBUGS code required to conduct analyses and shows all the necessary steps from having the data in a text file out of Excel to interpreting and processing the output from WinBUGS in R
 

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Contents

2 Brief Introduction to Bayesian Statistical Modeling
23
The Simplest Model for Count Data
47
Conventional Poisson GLMM for Count Data
73
5 StateSpace Models for Population Counts
115
6 Estimation of the Size of a Closed Population from CaptureRecapture Data
133
7 Estimation of Survival from CaptureRecapture Data Using the CormackJollySeber Model
171
8 Estimation of Survival Using MarkRecovery Data
241
9 Estimation of Survival and Movement from CaptureRecapture Data Using Multistate Models
263
11 Estimation of Demographic Rates Population Size and Projection Matrices from Multiple Data Types Using Integrated Population Models
347
12 Estimation of Abundance from Counts in Metapopulation Designs Using the Binomial Mixture Model
383
13 Estimation of Occupancy and Species Distributions from DetectionNondetection Data in Metapopulation Designs Using SiteOccupancy Models
413
14 Concluding Remarks
463
A List of WinBUGS Tricks
479
Two Further Useful Multistate CaptureRecapture Models
487
References
497
Index
515

10 Estimation of Survival Recruitment and Population Size from CaptureRecapture Data Using the JollySeber Model
315

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About the author (2012)

Dr Kery is a Population Ecologist with the Swiss Ornithological Institute and a courtesy professor ("Privatdozent") at the University of Z rich/Switzerland, from where he received his PhD in Ecology in 2000. He is an expert in the estimation and modeling of abundance, distribution and species richness in "metapopulation designs" (i.e., collections of replicate sites). For most of his work, he uses the Bayesian model fitting software BUGS and JAGS, about which he has published two books with Academic Press (2010 and 2012). He has authored/coauthored 70 peer-reviewed articles and four book chapters. Since 2007, and for a total of 103 days, he has taught 23 statistical modeling workshops about the methods in the proposed book at research institutes and universities all over the world.

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