## Bayesian statistics for social scientists |

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applying Bayes assessing assign assume Bayesian Bayesian statistics Beta distribution calculate cent credible interval chapter coin compute conﬁdence interval correlation coefﬁcient curve deﬁned deﬁnition degrees of freedom density function difference elementary events equal equation estimate example Exercise ﬁgures ﬁnd ﬁnding ﬁrst ﬂips given gives histogram independent inference concerning joint event level of measurement likelihood ratio linear mean and standard median methods non-Bayesian normal distribution normal population null hypothesis observations ofthe parameters person population mean posterior credible interval posterior distribution posterior opinion posterior probabilities prediction prior distribution prior opinion prior probabilities problem procedure proportion random sample ranks regression line relationship result sample mean sampling distribution scale scatterplot scientist scores shown in Fig signiﬁcance tests simple experiment speciﬁc standard deviation standard error statistics Student-t distribution tails theorem theory third law transformation true value uncertain quantity uniform prior variable variance X-scores x-values y-intercept zero