Before the vote: forecasting American national elections

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Sage Publications, 2000 - Language Arts & Disciplines - 224 pages
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Over the last 50 years, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. This book brings together some of the leading figures in political science to present their election forecasts, discuss their methodology, and present their critiques of the forecasting enterprise. They consider whether more accurate models of predicting voting behavior damages the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus of who the winner will be.

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Contents

FORECASTING MODELS
15
A Forecast for 1996
57
Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts
103
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