Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems

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Cambridge University Press, Jan 24, 2013 - Business & Economics - 253 pages
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Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.
 

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Contents

Bifurcations and chaos in 1D systems
39
Bifurcations and strange attractors in 2D systems
69
The nonlinear cobweb model
95
The cobweb model with heterogeneous expectations
130
An asset pricing model with heterogeneous beliefs
159
Empirical validation
196
Laboratory experiments
211
Bibliography
237
Index
251
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About the author (2013)

Cars Hommes is Professor of Economic Dynamics at the University of Amsterdam (UvA). After his PhD in Mathematical Economics at the University of Groningen, he founded the Center of Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance (CeNDEF), an interdisciplinary research group at UvA, pursuing theoretical, experimental and empirical research on complex systems, bounded rationality and behavioral agent-based models in economics and finance.

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