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Estimation of Probability and Utility
Does Subjective Expected Utility Theory Describe
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100 per cent ability alternative amount to win anchoring and adjustment argued assessed probabilities attributes axioms balls Bayes behaviour Bodafors calculators calibration cent assessments chance Chapter conservatism consider Coombs correlations curves decision analysis decision problem decision theory decision tree decision-making under uncertainty description of decision-making Draw duplex gamble elicitation evaluation event example expected value Fischhoff heuristics human intuitive Journal of Experimental judgement likelihoods MAUT measures multi-attributed normative status normative theory opinion revision outcome patient payoff matrix picnic PIP Systems pneumonia diagnosis poker-chip possible posterior opinion posterior probabilities prefer prior opinion prob probabilistic thinking probabilities and utilities probability assessments probability estimates probability revision representation result revision of opinion risk sample scores sequence shown in Figure simple gambles situation standard gamble subjective expected utility subjective probability sure-thing principle task theorem Tversky and Kahneman two-outcome gambles utility theory variables variance wager weights