Beyond al-Qaeda: Part 1, The Global Jihadist Movement

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Rand Corporation, Oct 14, 2002 - Political Science - 227 pages
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Examines al-Qaeda??s evolution and the emergence of the broader global jihadist movement-groups affiliated, associated, or inspired by al-Qaeda-and the threat that they pose to the United States and U.S. allies and interests. The authors conclude by setting out a four-pronged strategy to counter the jihadist threat.
 

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Contents

Introduction
1
Roadmap to the Book
2
AlQaedas Ideology and Propaganda
7
Themes
12
Propaganda
14
Strategy Structure and Operational Evolution Strategy
23
Structure
26
AlQaedas Structure Before September 11
27
The Caucasus and Central Asia
105
Assessment and Future Outlook
111
Uzbekistan
112
Assessment and Future Outlook
116
The North and East African Clusters
119
Assessment and Future Outlook
123
The Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat and the Dhamat Houmet Daawa Salafia
125
Assessment and Future Outlook
126

AlQaedas Structure After September 11
29
Operational Evolution
34
Hard Versus Soft Targets
36
MassCasualty Versus Smaller More Frequent Attacks
38
Focus on Economic Impact
39
Efficient Use of Loose Networks
40
New Sanctuaries
41
Unconventional Weapons
44
MANPADS Acquisition
48
Recruitment of Western Converts
51
AlQaedas Finances Resource Structures and Networks
57
Future Financial Prospects
59
AlQaedas Operational Planning Cycle
63
Post911 Planning Trends
66
Iraq in alQaedas Strategic Agenda
68
The alQaeda Nebula
73
South Asian Clusters
81
Assessment and Future Outlook
90
Pakistan
91
Assessment and Future Outlook
96
Bangladesh
98
Assessment and Future Outlook
103
Libyan Islamic Fighting Group
127
Assessment and Future Outlook
128
Tunisian Combatant Group
129
Assessment and Future Outlook
130
Somalia AlItihaad alIslami AIAI and the New Somali Jihadi Network
131
Assessment and Future Outlook
133
The alZarqawi Network Jordanian and Iraqi Jihadis
135
Assessment and Future Outlook
137
Iraq
138
Assessment and Outlook
143
The Southeast Asian Cluster
147
JI and Local Islamist Groups in Southeast Asia
154
Assessment and Future Outlook
156
Conclusions and Recommendations
159
Attack the Ideology
160
Break the Links Between the Global and Local Jihads
161
Deny Sanctuaries
163
Strengthen the Capabilities of Frontline States to Confront Local Jihadist Threats
164
Implications for the US Air Force
166
Bibliography
173
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About the author (2002)

* Angel M. Rabasa (Ph.D., History, Harvard University) is a senior policy analyst at RAND. He was previously the Deputy Director, Office of Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, and Singapore Affairs at the Department of State and has held numerous State and Defense Department positions.

* Peter Chalk (PhD, political science, University of British Columbia) is an associate political scientist at RAND. Expertise includes South East Asia, international terrorism, terrorism and other emerging threats.

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