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36 commodities average amplitude average price average slump Bloomberg Business boom or slump booms and slumps Brain-Shapiro statistic Bry-Boschan algorithm c.i.f. European ports c.i.f. Rotterdam Cashin Cents/lb cocoa Coconut oil commodity markets commodity price booms commodity price series commodity-price cycles cotton prices cycles in commodity duration dependence duration of booms duration of slumps fifth slump phase fishmeal Groundnut oil Hamburg International Sugar Organization kurtosis Liang and McDermott London Metal Exchange McDermott and Scott mean absolute deviation Metals Week minimum phase monthly amplitude months for booms months for slumps movement in prices nature of commodity null hypothesis number of completed oil prices peak-to-peak peaks and troughs percent a month ports Wall Street price falls price rises Prior prompt shipment S/Mt severity of price slump in commodity slumps booms spot price stylized facts subsequent boom SugarUSA third boom phase turning points U.K. ports Wall Street Journal wheat World Bank York and Metals