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36 commodities already spent average amplitude average slump Bananas Bloomberg Business boom or slump booms and slumps Brain-Shapiro Bry-Boschan algorithm c.i.f. European ports Cashin Cents/lb cocoa Coconut oil Coffee arabica Coffee robusta commodity markets commodity price booms commodity price cycles commodity price series commodity-price cycles consistent shape cotton prices cycles in commodity duration dependence duration of booms exports fifth slump phase Fishmeal Groundnut oil Hamburg London Metal Exchange McDermott and Scott mean absolute deviation Metals Week minimum phase monthly amplitude months for booms months for slumps nature of commodity null hypothesis oil prices peaks and troughs percent a month price falls price rises prices is independent Prior prompt shipment severity of price slump in commodity slump in prices spot price stabilisation policies statistics stylized facts subsequent boom SugarſSA third boom phase turning points Wall Street Journal wheat Wool coarse World Bank World Bank 1999 York and Metals