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36 commodities already spent average amplitude average price average slump Bloomberg Business boom or slump booms and slumps Bry-Boschan algorithm c.i.f. European ports c.i.f. Rotterdam Oil Cashin Cents/lb cocoa commodity markets commodity price booms commodity price cycles commodity price series commodity-price cycles consistent shape cotton prices cycle-dating cycles in commodity duration dependence duration of booms duration of slumps f.o.b. Gulf fifth slump phase fishmeal Hamburg kurtosis London Metal Exchange McDermott and Scott mean absolute deviation Metals Week minimum phase monthly amplitude months for booms months for slumps nature of commodity null hypothesis oil prices peaks and troughs percent a month ports Wall Street price falls price rises prices is independent prompt shipment severity of price sixth boom phase slump in commodity slump in prices Soybean spot price stabilisation policies statistics stylized facts subsequent boom SugarUSA third boom phase turning points Wall Street Journal wheat World Bank York and Metals