Bulgaria: 2012 Article IV Consultation--Staff Report; Public Information; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria
International Monetary Fund, Dec 13, 2012 - Business & Economics - 82 pages
Bulgaria did not have any exchange rate crisis, international bailout, bank intervention, or build-up of public debt. This attests to the strength of the policy framework and policy implementation. The fiscal adjustment achieved so far should be preserved, but improving the composition of the budget would support growth. The financial system is stable with high buffers, but the low growth environment poses challenges. Executive Directors suggest the need for some structural reforms.
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_ Baseline analytic Annex Article IV Consultation assets banking system bond spread budget buffers Bulgaria Bulgarian National Bank capital CDS spreads consumption credit growth crisis currency board decline deposit growth economy effect environment euro area eurobond exchange rate expenditure exports external debt financial system ﬁnancing financing need ﬁscal fiscal consolidation Fiscal Multipliers fiscal policy fiscal reserve Foreign direct investment funds absorption GDP deflator GDP millions GIIPS growth rate IMF staff estimates impact improve income increase infrastructure insolvency framework International investment position INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND labor market liquidity loans Memorandum items Millions of euros minimum Nominal GDP NPLs percent change percent of GDP potential Primary balance private sector Privatization proceeds productivity Proj projections provisions public debt ratio real depreciation real GDP growth real interest rate revenue risks savings shock in percent short-term Silver Fund social security contributions Sources spending stability structural reform thresholds trade wage