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actual values adjusted annual Auto autocorrelation function bootstrap Box-Jenkins Business Forecasting calculated centered moving average Chapter column combined forecast command correlation coefficient Current Business cycle factor data set deseasonalized developed differencing direct investment diskette disposable personal income dummy variables Durbin-Watson statistic economic equation estimates evaluation example expert systems exponential smoothing exponential smoothing model Figure Forecast Error forecast horizon forecast values forecasting methods forecasting model forecasting process graph housing starts PHS independent variables Journal of Business linear mortgage rate moving average moving-average multiple-regression model observations partial autocorrelation pattern press Return private housing starts quarterly regression analysis regression model regression results retail car sales retail sales RMSE sample Schwarz Criterion seasonal indexes serial correlation shown significant smoothing constant SORITEC squared errors standard deviation standard error Table techniques time-series decomposition time-series plot trend Trend Estimate users weights white noise Winters zero