Calibration of a Past Year Demand Model for Model Evaluation
Texas Transportation Institute, Texas A&M University System, 2002 - Traffic estimation - 104 pages
The objective of this project was to perform an evaluation of the ability of the current modeling process in Texas to forecast travel behavior and patterns within the context of a controlled experimental design. The project attempted to calibrate travel demand models using travel surveys conducted in the San Antonio-Bexar County area in 1969. These models would then be applied to forecast travel behavior and patterns for the years 1980 and 1990, with the results compared to observed conditions. Due to data limitations, researchers did not consider the model developed for 1970 acceptable in terms of meeting the calibration criteria that were established. This negated the application of the model to 1980 and 1990 since the results could not be interpreted with any confidence. A number of recommendations on the model information needs for retention in future model calibration/validation efforts are made. The recommendations provide the basis for examining travel demand models within controlled conditions as a routine part of the modeling process.
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Research Approach Overview
Summary Evaluation of the 1970 Travel Demand Model
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1969 OD survey 1970 travel demand area type assigned volumes attraction rates attractions input attractions output Automobile Driver Trips average trip length Bexar County comparison count VMT count volumes criteria cut lines demographic data Desired Attractions difference districts dwelling units Estimated Number Estimated Zonal evaluation extemal local trips extemal stations External Local Attractions Federal Highway Administration ﬁrst functional classiﬁcation Guadalupe County HBNW Attractions HBW Trip household survey identiﬁed mean trip length median household income mode choice model results Model VMT NHB trips number of trips person trips population productions and attractions reported Results from Trip Retail root mean square San Antonio San Antonio-Bexar County signiﬁcant Smoothed Friction speciﬁc Speed/Capacity Look-Up Table stratiﬁed study area survey data Texas Transportation Institute TLFD Transportation Forecasting transportation network travel behavior travel demand model trip distribution model Trip Production Rates trip purpose trip rates trip tables Trips per Household zonal attractions zone system