Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action

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CQ Press, Dec 16, 2011 - Education - 244 pages
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Accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Beebe and Pherson have created a set of twelve robust, class-tested cases on events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. The case studies are designed to give analysts-intraining a hands-on opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques to tackle real-life problems. Each case delivers a compelling narrative and a set of step-by-step instructions that make teaching and learning as effective and efficient as possible.

 

Key Features:

 

- Questions at the start of each case challenge the student to think critically and help the students bring the case into focus;

- Carefully crafted narratives provide the right amount of detail to give a realistic sense of the complexity and challenges of the case;

- Recommended readings at the end of each narrative allow room for further research

- Sections entitled "Structured Analytic Techniques in Action" frame the analytic tasks and provide step-by-step instructions for applying three to fi ve analytic techniques in a series of exercises for each case study;

- Two hundred photos, maps, figures, tables, boxes, and technique templates support analysis and instruction; and

- A matrix of the cases and techniques used in each cases augment the annotated table of contents and provide students and instructors an all-in-one view of the contents.

 

To make the teaching of the cases as turn-key as possible, Beebe and Pherson have created a case-by-case guide, Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Instructor's Materials, that is free to all users as a downloadable PDF. Instructor's Materials includes solutions to all of the exercises, teaching tips, conclusions for each of the cases, and key takeaways that can be used to guide classroom discussion. 

 

Techniques covered include:

 

Analysis of Competing Hypotheses

Deception Detection

The Decision Matrix

Devil's Advocacy

Force Field Analysis

Indicators

Indicators Validator

Key Assumptions Check

Mind Maps

Multiple Hypothesis Generation

Multiple Scenarios Generation

Outside-In Thinking

The Pre-Mortem Analysis

Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes

Quadrant Crunching

Red Hat Analysis

Simple Scenarios

Starbursting

Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats

Structured Brainstorming

Structured Self-Critique

Timelines and Chronologies

 

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Contents

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01_BeebePherson_CH01 Text_720
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About the author (2011)

Sarah Miller Beebe began thinking about a book of cases during her career as an analyst and manager at the Central Intelligence Agency. A variety of broadening experiences, including an assignment as director for Russia on the National Security Council staff and a position as a national counterintelligence officer at the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive, drove home the need for rigorous and effective approaches to intelligence analysis. It became apparent to her that cases could not only teach important analytic lessons surrounding historical events but also give analysts experience using a question-based thinking approach underpinned by practical techniques to improve their analyses. Now, as owner of Ascendant Analytics, she helps organizations apply such techniques against their specific analytic problems.

Randolph H. Pherson , Chief Executive Officer ofnbsp;Globalytica, LLC, helps businesses and governmentsnbsp;develop robust analytic capabilities within their organizations.nbsp;He has authored seven books on structurednbsp;analytic techniques, critical thinking and writing skills, strategic foresightnbsp;analysis, and communicating analysis in the digital age. He collaborated withnbsp;Richards J. Heuer Jr. in launching the Analysis of Competing Hypothesesnbsp;(ACH) method, and they are coauthors of Structured Analytic Techniques fornbsp;Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed., 2015. Mr. Pherson has taught courses at thenbsp;London School of Economics, Liverpool Hope University, England; the Hertienbsp;School of Governance in Berlin; Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid; and thenbsp;Autonomous University of Barcelona. He developed and holds the patent for anbsp;suite of collaborative Web-based software tools, TH!NK Suite®.nbsp; Mr. Pherson is also President of Pherson Associates, LLC and a foundingnbsp;Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. In 2000, he completednbsp;a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community, most recentlynbsp;serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously atnbsp;the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topicsnbsp;ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspectornbsp;General's staff, and developed and implemented a strategic planning processnbsp;for the CIA. He is the recipient of the CIA's Distinguished Intelligence Medalnbsp;for his service as NIO for Latin America and the Distinguished Careernbsp;Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his AB from Dartmouth College andnbsp;his MA in International Relations from Yale University.

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