Changing Perceptions and Altered Reality: Emerging Economies in the 1990s, Volume 428
World Bank Publications, 2000 - Political Science - 198 pages
There was the economic development "miracle" in the East Asia Region, then the great crash. In the Latin American and Caribbean region, there remain question marks, little increased growth, and no "miracle" in sight. Given the opportunity to observe both of these regions first hand over a 25-year period, Shahid Javed Burki, relates his observations, perceptions, and comparisons of these diverse emerging economies. As he departs the World Bank, Mr. Burki leaves this contribution to the store of Bank knowledge for future reference. It is both a professional and personal narrative of two dynamic regions undergoing tremendous change. Mr. Burki shares his unique insight into these economies and his own changing perceptions during his work in the Latin American and Caribbean region.
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adopt American and Caribbean areas Argentina Asian Ayub Khan Bank's Bhutto Brazil Burki capital Caribbean China Chinese Colombia conference coun country's crime and violence crises crisis currency deal decades decline deficits devel developing countries developing world domestic East Asia economic growth effort emerging markets exchange rate export external financial markets fiscal flows foreign funds global economic global financial gross domestic product groups growth rates human development important improve incidence of poverty income distribution increase India industrial world institutions international financial International Monetary Fund investment LAC Region Latin America ment Mercosur Mexican authorities Mexico million move nomic Pakistan percent policymakers political poor population President private sector problems produced recent reforms regime role Shahid Javed significant situation social structural tion trade urban volatility vulnerability Washington Consensus World Bank Zulfikar Ali Bhutto
Page 182 - Wijnbergen (1995) recognized the temporary nature of the expansion of capital inflows and argued that the key question was: "once capital stops flowing, should we expect the current account to improve, or is Mexico heading for a major [balance of payments] crisis?
Page 180 - Mexico before its 1994 crisis as Reisen (1997, p. 1) relates: In January 1994, the Governor of the Banco de Mexico told The Economist that the current account deficit was not a problem because it was associated with the inflow of foreign funds, rather than expansionary fiscal or monetary policy. A year later, foreign and domestic investors forced Mexico to reduce the deficit on her current account from almost 8 per cent of GDP in 1994 to about zero.
Page 165 - By contrast, organizations are entities composed of people who act collectively in pursuit of shared objectives. Thus, organizations and individuals pursue their interests within an institutional structure defined by formal rules (constitutions, laws, regulations, contracts) and informal rules (ethics, trust, religious precepts, and other implicit codes of conduct) — see Boxes 1.1 and 1.2.
Page 182 - adjust to these risks [of volatile capital movements] through higher interest rates and, possibly, depreciating the peso."8 In the World Bank's Trends in Developing Economies 1993, Bank staff expressed their apprehension in more vivid terms, stating that "In 1992 about two thirds of the widening of the current account deficit can be ascribed to lower private savings — If this trend continues, it could renew fears about Mexico's inability to generate enough foreign exchange to service debt...
Page 87 - By implication, it also underscores the remarkable change that has occurred in these relations since the collapse of communism in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union. FIGURE 2 Globalization and evolving relations between developed and developing countries Developed country governments and the private sector now look at the developing world not through the old ideological lenses, but through more pragmatic lenses that focus both on upside opportunities and downside...
Page 43 - ... See also Sebastian Edwards, Latin America and the Caribbean a Decade After the Debt Crisis (Washington: World Bank, 1993). Table 2.1 Expansion of intraregional trade, 1988-94 (percent) NAFTA = Canada, Mexico and the United States; Mercosur = Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay; Andean Group = Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela; CACM = Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua; Caricom = Antigua and Barbuda, the Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada,...
Page 177 - ... faith, rather than a conclusion based on hard evidence."2 The US administration's efforts to persuade the public and Congress of the benefits of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) also contributed to the popular notion that there was a Mexican "miracle."3 The buildup to the crisis: 1990-93 In analyzing the Mexican crisis, it is useful to distinguish between two periods: 1990 to 1993, when the economy became increasingly vulnerable, and 1994, when external and domestic political shocks...
Page 180 - Mexico's remarkable fiscal adjustment following the debt crisis is impressive, it is also important to note that the stance in terms of fiscal policy started to shift as early as 1989. This can only be appreciated when the traditional fiscal accounts are corrected to exclude from public expenditure the inflationary component of interest payments.
Page 176 - This enthusiasm was the consequence of a number of factors. The most important, perhaps, was the tremendous faith that many analysts had in market-oriented reforms; if results were not visible, many argued, they were around the corner. Paul Krugman has commented that much of the hoopla on Mexico's prospects represented a "leap of faith, rather than a conclusion based on hard...