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INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
A Case for Persistent Fiscal Surpluses
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ADRs Bank of Chile biased business cycle capital account capital controls capital outflows Central Bank ceteris paribus changes Chilean economy Chilean pesos CODELCO constant consumption controls on capital copper cycle copper export growth copper export share copper price cycle current account deposits domestic interest rates economic effect Eyzaguirre Figure financial assets fiscal accounts fiscal policy fiscal surpluses Fund staff estimates GDP growth Government Expenditure growth Investment gvt surplus impact important increase inflation inflows initial primary initial surpluses interest rate differential intergenerational International Monetary Fund investment long-term capital flows macroeconomic medium mining sector nonfinancial wealth nonrenewable resources pension funds percent of GDP period portfolio flows price of copper primary balance primary deficits primary surplus private sector ratio of short-term real copper real exchange rate real interest rate Regression short-term capital flows Soto statistically Tobin Tax trend U.S. dollars Valdes-Prieto variables volatility young terms