China's Exchange Rate System Reform: Lessons for Macroeconomic Policy Management
The author of this book is the original proponent of China''s exchange rate system reform announced in 2005. This book discusses: The transitional, medium-term and long-term designs of the reform; China''s achievements and mistakes on the reform; China''s banking reform and its lessons to other emerging economies; Maintaining a certain trade surplus as a dynamically optimal choice for China; China''s stock market bubble and the gradual bubble squeezing strategy; China''s property inflation and its solution; China''s fiscal and monetary policies during and after the global financial tsunami; Risk of global asset inflation, CPI inflation and cycle of exchange rate after the financial tsunami; Likelihood of an asset bubble and then a crisis in economies outside the US during the overheated phase of the recovery. Through these discussions, the author hopes to share his knowledge on macroeconomic policy management accumulated over the past thirty five years. In particular, he would like to share his insights on macroeconomic policy management before, during and after an asset inflation era or a crisis period. He would also like to warn policy makers and financial investors on the likelihood of an asset bubble and then a crisis in economies outside the US. The author hopes this book could eventually stimulate the emergence of OC macroeconomic policy managementOCO as a new and important discipline in economics. While the focus of the book is on macroeconomic policy management, it also offers important lessons and strategies on share and property investments. Thus, economists, policy makers, central bank officials, economics students, business and finance professionals, individual investors and academia in other disciplines will find the book useful."
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amount Asian Financial Crisis asset inﬂation asset price beneﬁt capital control Chapter China Chinese economy Chinese government cost covered interest arbitrage CPI inﬂation curbing measures currency demand discussion dollar band domestic exchange rate band exchange rate system ﬁnancial tsunami ﬁrms ﬁrst ﬁscal ﬁxed ﬂows forward or futures funds futures market gradual appreciation hence herding behavior higher highlighted HKMA Hong Kong dollar huge increase interbank interbank rate interest arbitrage interest rate investment investors macroeconomic monetary base monetary growth pressure money multiplier money supply moral hazard NEER ofﬁcials outﬂows PBoC PE ratio plunge potential private property price problem proﬁt property bubble property inﬂation proposal public ﬂats quantity easing rate system reform ratio recommended reduce renminbi renminbi appreciation renminbi forward result risk Section selling share price Singapore speculative attack speculative inﬂows stock market bubble subsequent substantial sufﬁcient trade surplus transitional reform trigger US’s vicious cycles