Chronic Diseases in the Year 2005: Scenarios on Chronic Non-Specific Lung Diseases 1990–2005
Aims and approach In order to chart the way for long-tenn policies in the field of public health, the Dutch government needs to have the best possible insight into potential future trends and the problems to which these could give rise. It was with a view to compiling a number of long-range studies that the independent Steering Committee on Future Health Scenarios was set up in 1983. In 1988 this body appointed a board of experts to sUivey the future of Chronic Diseases. Three chronic diseases have been selected: diabetes mellitus, CNSLD (chronic non-specific lung disease) and rheumatoid arthritis (a chronic disorder of the joints). In close consultation with this board, the study has been conducted by the Department of Epidemiology of the National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection in Bilthoven. This report contains the results of the research into CNSLD. The report on diabetes mellitus was published in March 1990, while that on rheumatoid arthritis followed shortly (1991). The series has been concluded with a fmal report (spring 1992), in which, among other things, the results of the three reports have been brought together with a view to arriving at an overall picture of chronic diseases. The research had two main objectives: 1.
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absolute number age and sex age group air pollution airways allergens approx asthma centres asthma patients Bilthoven bronchial asthma bronchitis and emphysema bronchitis including emphysema cause of death CBS Health Interview chronic bronchitis including chronic diseases CNSLD patients CNSLD-related contacts COPD corticosteroids cough Delphi Delphi-study demographic changes developments diabetes mellitus district nursing drugs due to CNSLD Dutch epidemiological EPOZ exacerbations and complications exogenous factors expectancy females GP consultations Health Interview Survey hyperreactivity improved incidence of CNSLD increase indicate infections lung disease males medical consumption morbidity mortality Netherlands NUHI number of CNSLD number of patients nursing days nursing homes Ommoord outpatient passive smoking patient education patients with CNSLD percentage period physiotherapy population practitioners prevalence of CNSLD prevention pulmonary function disorders reference scenario respiratory insufficiency respiratory symptoms result rise scenario study smoking sputum Table tobacco smoke total number treatment of CNSLD trends Vlaardingen Vlagtwedde women