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The Albert W Johnson University Research Lecture Series
Can We Predict Humanitarian Crises?
List of Publications
able academic African American analysis behavior Boutros Boutros-Ghali Bueno de Mesquita catastrophe model causal analyses causal models Club of Rome collective identity collective madness confrontation data sets dependent variable develop Diego State University Dipak Gupta early warning system early-warning econometric methods econometric models economic forecasting economists efforts error ethnic violence EW models example expert-based false positive forecast values Forecasting Models forecasts based genocide Gurr and Harff Herbert Simon humanitarian crises individual instance International Jihad judgmental methods Kalman filter Kuran look matter of fact mean squared error methods of forecasting outcomes pattern recognition political and humanitarian political forecasting political science political violence politicide predict problem question rain random relative efficiency Rwanda San Diego Schmeidl scholar society Somalia statistical studies systematic talk techniques theory time-series time-series analyses time-series models University Research Lecture