Combating Nuclear Smuggling: DHS¿s Program to Procure and Deploy Advanced Radiation Detection Portal Monitors Is Likely to Exceed the Department¿s Previous Cost Estimates
DIANE Publishing, May 1, 2009 - 51 pages
Preventing nuclear and radioactive material from being smuggled into the U.S. -- perhaps to be used by terrorists in a nuclear weapon or in a radiological dispersal device -- has become a key national security objective. The duties of the Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) include acquiring and supporting the deployment of radiation detection equipment. It is responsible for the development, testing, acquisition and deployment of a system to detect radiation at U.S. ports of entry. This report reviews: (1) the projected costs to implement DNDO¿s 2006 project execution plan for the radiation portal monitor program; and (2) the reliability of DNDO¿s projections given what is known about the costs to procure, install, and operate radiation detection equipment. Illus.
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$1.9 billion point 1.2.1 RPM Procurement 2006 project execution agency officials agency’s apples to apples ASP 4 Panel ASP contractors ASP variants billion point estimate Breakdown Structure budget buy and deploy Cost Assessment Guide cost estimating methodology Deploy Radiation Detection deploying ASPs Detection Portal Monitors DHS commented DHS’s DNDO plans DNDO provided DNDO’s Cost Estimates DNDO’s current DNDO’s estimate DNDO’s project draft report entire life cycle equip U.S. ports Estimates Are Unreliable Estimates Could Result fiscal year 2008 GAO analysis independent cost estimate Latin Hypercube Sampling maintenance major project costs Medium Resolution OMB Exhibit 300 OMB’s omits major project polyvinyl toluene portal monitor program portal monitor project ports of entry program costs program phase project execution plan radiation detection equipment Radiation Detection Portal radiation portal monitor revised risk and uncertainty screen rail cars shortfall Significant Cost Overruns sodium iodide standard cargo portal types of ASPs WBS element