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Estimated Trends in the Relative Price of Commodities 1854
Estimated Trend and Dummy Effects 18721990
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95 percent level 99 percent confidence aggregate annual average bottom panel Boughton Branson commodities and manufactures commodity markets commodity price index commodity price level constructed data cumulative derived deterministic trend developments Dickey-Fuller test Durbin-Watson statistic equation error-correction model estimated trend Exchange Rate fail to reject flexprice model Grilli heteroscedasticity homoscedastic IMF data industrial countries inflation rate interest rate International Monetary Fund level of commodity Lewis log-linear trend m1ll manufactures prices market conditions Muttardy negative trend nominal interest null hypothesis o a downward shift panel of Figure percent confidence level percent per annum percentage changes Phillips-Perron statistic Z(t Prebisch Prebisch-Singer hypothesis price of commodities price of primary prices of manufactured primary commodity prices Raul Prebisch raw materials regression relative commodity prices relative price residuals respectively interpolated sample Sapsford 1985a Schlote serial correlation significant Spraos standard deviations t-statistic terms of trade test statistics top panel U.S. dollars unit root United Kingdom variables