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actual unemployment Administration's explanation aggregate supply altemative ambiguous assessed Barry Eichengreen budget deficit capital flows capital mobility changes in U.S. Chart Clinton Administration commodity price indices commodity prices Congress congressional core inflation credible current expansion Economic Committee Studv economic growth Eichengreen emerging market economies empirical evidence estimates of NAIRU example Exchange Stabilization Fund factors Federal Reserve monetary financial markets fiscal policy forecast inflation foreign exchange intervention foreign exchange market foreign exchange operations gap between actual global growth without inflation growth-enhancing effects impact inflation forecasts intemational currency intemational financial interest rates Interoational intervention activity Joint Economic Committee Keleher long-term interest rates Lower inflation market price indicators non-transparent Phillips curve policy goals policy guides policy objectives policymakers price stability promoting recent reporting Reserve monetary policy role Schwartz secrecy signals stabilizing monetary policy sterilized intervention suggests sustained tax rates transparent dollar policy Treasury's trends trilemma U.S. dollar U.S. monetary policy warehousing