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AN ANALYSIS OF THE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
Smoothing and IMAqq
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analysis ARIMA models ARMA forecasting ARMA p,q autoregressive Average difference CM CM CN CN CN computed correlation correlation function DATA GROUP data series demand DEVIATIONS BETWEEN ARMA differenced series double smoothing ERRORS BETWEEN ARMA expected sample autocorrelation exponential smoothing technique fitted model fore forecast errors forecast function forecast methods FORECASTING AND SINGLE historical data in-process inventories job arrivals job-shop linear linear regression Machine Center manufacturing activities manufacturing data Mean Absolute Errors MEAN ABSOLUTE FORECAST mean square error model form model identification Operations Research original series over-forecast parameter estimation period permissible region procedure production residuals Royal Statistical Society sales data sample auto sample autocorrelation function scheduling significant single exponential smoothing single smoothing smoothed average smoothing constant smoothing forecast SMOOTHING OF DATA standard deviation structure Subroutine sunspot temporary model triple smoothing under-forecast errors Weekly Queues white noise yt-y