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action aircraft airline airplanes allocation alternative systems applied assign assumptions attributes basic budget candidate systems capability cash flow chapter choose configuration constraints cost-effectiveness analysis cost-effectiveness criteria cost-effectiveness evaluations criterion decision matrix decision problem decision rule decision situation decision theory decision-maker Defense design concept design criteria design process desired discounted cash flow dollars economic effectiveness estimates example expected utility expected value fallacy fare Figure fixed-effectiveness approach forecast formulation goals identified inputs investment judgment L. J. Savage magnitude mathematical measure military minimax missile mission requirements nature Operations Research opportunity cost optimal orbit outcome output parameters passenger payload performance probability quantifiable represent risk selection significant specific stage subsonic jet subsystem supersonic transport system design system worth systems analysis systems engineering Table techniques theory tion traffic U.S. SST utility functions Value Theory vector weapon system weighting