Critical Thinking For Strategic Intelligence

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CQ Press, Oct 23, 2012 - Political Science - 329 pages
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Accomplished instructors and intelligence practitioners Beebe and Pherson have created a set of twelve robust, class-tested cases on events in foreign intelligence, counterintelligence, terrorism, homeland security, law enforcement, and decision-making support. The case studies are designed to give analysts-intraining a hands-on opportunity to apply structured analytic techniques to tackle real-life problems. Each case delivers a compelling narrative and a set of step-by-step instructions that make teaching and learning as effective and efficient as possible.

Key Features:

- Questions at the start of each case challenge the student to think critically and help the students bring the case into focus;

- Carefully crafted narratives provide the right amount of detail to give a realistic sense of the complexity and challenges of the case;

- Recommended readings at the end of each narrative allow room for further research

- Sections entitled "Structured Analytic Techniques in Action" frame the analytic tasks and provide step-by-step instructions for applying three to fi ve analytic techniques in a series of exercises for each case study;

- Two hundred photos, maps, figures, tables, boxes, and technique templates support analysis and instruction; and

- A matrix of the cases and techniques used in each cases augment the annotated table of contents and provide students and instructors an all-in-one view of the contents.

 

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Contents

WHO ARE THE CUSTOMERS?
3
WHAT ARE THE KEY QUESTIONS?
13
WHAT IS THE BROADER CONTEXT FOR THE ANALYSIS?
19
HOW SHOULD I CONCEPTUALIZE MY PRODUCT?
35
WHAT IS MY ANALYTIC APPROACH?
43
CAN COLLABORATION CONTRIBUTE TO A BETTER ANSWER?
59
WHERE IS THE INFORMATION I NEED?
71
HOW DO MODELS HELP MY ANALYSIS?
73
HOW DO I CONVEY MY MESSAGE EFFECTIVELY?
177
IS MY ARGUMENT PERSUASIVE?
179
HOW SHOULD I PORTRAY PROBABILITY AND LEVELS OF CONFIDENCE?
185
HOW CAN GRAPHICS SUPPORT MY ANALYSIS?
197
HOW DO I PRESENT MY MESSAGE IN THE MOST COMPELLING WAY?
211
HOW DO I KNOW WHEN I AM FINISHED?
225
CASE STUDIES
235
COUNTERING THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR THREAT STUXNET AND ITS BROADER IMPLICATIONS
237

WHAT TYPES OF INFORMATION ARE AVAILABLE?
85
CAN I TRUST THE SOURCES?
97
HOW SHOULD I EVALUATE SOURCES ON THE INTERNET?
111
WHAT IS MY ARGUMENT?
119
ARE MY KEY ASSUMPTIONS WELLFOUNDED?
121
CAN I MAKE MY CASE?
129
DID I CONSIDER ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES?
151
HOW DO I DEAL WITH POLITICIZATION?
159
HOW MIGHT I BE SPECTACULARLY WRONG?
171
PUZZLING FOOD POISONINGS IN GERMANY
245
THE END OF THE ERA OF AIRCRAFT CARRIERS
253
FINANCIAL CRISES IN THE UNITED STATES CHRONIC OR AVOIDABLE?
271
YEMEN THE NEXT AFGHANISTAN?
287
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
303
LIST OF NAMES
314
RECOMMENDED READINGS
316
INDEX
319
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About the author (2012)

Katherine Hibbs Pherson, Chief Executive Officer of Pherson Associates, teaches and advises on the use of critical thinking skills and structured analytic techniques to intelligence analysts in the U.S. Government's Intelligence and Homeland Security Communities. Ms. Pherson and her company work directly with U.S. Government agencies and in partnership with a number of companies on strategic planning, security, and analysis projects for the U.S. Government. Ms. Pherson completed a 27-year career at the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in intelligence and security analysis and resource management in 2000. Her leadership in the security arena led to the adoption of a risk management methodology, the strengthening and the implementation of overseas security countermeasures, and improvements in dealing with unsolicited contacts. As head of the Director of Central Intelligence's Center for Security Evaluation, she managed the Intelligence Community's involvement in rebuilding the penetrated U.S. Embassy in Moscow. Ms. Pherson received her A.B. in Hispanic Studies from Vassar College, an M.A. in Spanish Linguistics and Latin American Studies from the University of Illinois, and an M.A. in Communications from the University of Oklahoma. She is a recipient of the CIA's Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal and the Intelligence Community's National Distinguished Service Medal.

Randolph H. Pherson , Chief Executive Officer ofnbsp;Globalytica, LLC, helps businesses and governmentsnbsp;develop robust analytic capabilities within their organizations.nbsp;He has authored seven books on structurednbsp;analytic techniques, critical thinking and writing skills, strategic foresightnbsp;analysis, and communicating analysis in the digital age. He collaborated withnbsp;Richards J. Heuer Jr. in launching the Analysis of Competing Hypothesesnbsp;(ACH) method, and they are coauthors of Structured Analytic Techniques fornbsp;Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed., 2015. Mr. Pherson has taught courses at thenbsp;London School of Economics, Liverpool Hope University, England; the Hertienbsp;School of Governance in Berlin; Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid; and thenbsp;Autonomous University of Barcelona. He developed and holds the patent for anbsp;suite of collaborative Web-based software tools, TH!NK Suite®.nbsp; Mr. Pherson is also President of Pherson Associates, LLC and a foundingnbsp;Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. In 2000, he completednbsp;a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community, most recentlynbsp;serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously atnbsp;the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topicsnbsp;ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspectornbsp;General's staff, and developed and implemented a strategic planning processnbsp;for the CIA. He is the recipient of the CIA's Distinguished Intelligence Medalnbsp;for his service as NIO for Latin America and the Distinguished Careernbsp;Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his AB from Dartmouth College andnbsp;his MA in International Relations from Yale University.

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