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STANDARD BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS
PROGRAMMED SELECTION OF CYCLICAL TURNING POINTS
Problems of Programmed Selection
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ABSOLUTE CHANGE AVE OEVIATION AVERAGE AVERAGE OEVIATION bituminous coal Burns and Mitchell business conditions business cycle analysis Business Cycle Indicators business cycle peak business cycle trough business cycle turns cent CHART 4 Continued compared conformity measures corresponding turns counterphases CYCLE OATES TROUGH CYCLE PATTERNS cycle phases cycle relatives cyclical behavior cyclical turning points declines differences diffusion indexes duration fluctuations FULL CYCLE indexes of coinciding irregular lags lead Milton Friedman minimum phase MO 9 MO monthly months NBER neighborhood Nonagricultural Employment nonprogrammed approach Output Table panel PEAK TROUGH PEAK peak-to-peak peaks and troughs Pearsonian percentage changes phases found preceding procedure programmed approach programmed selection recession analysis recovery analysis REFERENCE CYCLE ANALYSIS reference peak seasonally adjusted Shiskin smoothed span specific cycle Spencer curve stages standard business cycle tentative peak THOUSANO PERSONS tion TOTAL AVERAGE AVERAGE trend TROUGH PEAK TROUGH trough-to-trough turning point determination twelve-month moving average unemployment rate values