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STANDARD BUSINESS CYCLE ANALYSIS
PROGRAMMED SELECTION OF CYCLICAL TURNING POINTS
Problems of Programmed Selection
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ABSOLUTE CHANGE ANALYSIS CYCLE OATES bituminous coal Burns and Mitchell business conditions business cycle analysis Business Cycle Indicators business cycle peak business cycle trough business cycle turns CENSUS cent CHART 4 Continued compared conformity measures correlation corresponding turns counterphases cycle base CYCLE PATTERNS cycle phases cycle relatives cyclical behavior cyclical turning points dates declines differences diffusion indexes duration economic activities fluctuations FULL CYCLE indexes of coinciding irregular lags lead Milton Friedman minimum phase MO 9 MO monthly months NBER neighborhood Nonagricultural Employment nonprogrammed approach Output Table panel PEAK TROUGH PEAK peak-to-peak peaks and troughs Pearsonian percentage changes phases found preceding procedure programmed approach programmed selection recession analysis recovery analysis REFERENCE CYCLE ANALYSIS reference peak seasonally adjusted Shiskin smoothed span SPECIFIC CYCLE ANALYSIS stages standard business cycle tentative peak THOUSANO PERSONS tion trend TROUGH PEAK TROUGH TROUGH TROUGH trough-to-trough turning point determination twelve-month moving average unemployment rate values