Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty

Howard Raiffa

Random House, 1968 - Decision making - 309 pages

Your basic problem; Analysis of your basic problem; Uncertain payoffs and biased measurements; Utility theory or what to do about non-EMV'ers; Use of judgmental probability; The normal form of analysis; More on the economics of sampling; Risk sharing and group decisions; The art of implementation and general critique; Further perspectives and a guide to the literature; Index; The data of your basic problem.

Contents

• Your Basic Problem: 1
• Analysis of Your Basic Problem: 7
• Summary and generalization: 33

About the author

Howard Raiffa was born in the Bronx, New York on January 24, 1924. He was attending City College when he enlisted in the Army Air Corps, where he was a radar specialist. He received a bachelor's degree in mathematics in 1946, a master's degree in statistics, and a doctorate in mathematics from the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor. He taught at Columbia University from 1952 to 1957 and then joined the faculty of the business school at Harvard University. He was a co-founder of the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard (now the Harvard Kennedy School). He was a member of the university faculty for 37 years before retiring in 1994. He pioneered what became known as decision science - a discipline that encompasses negotiating techniques, conflict resolution, risk analysis, and game theory. He was the author of 11 books including Games and Decisions: Introduction and Critical Survey written with R. Duncan Luce, Applied Statistical Decision Theory written with Robert Schlaifer, The Art and Science of Negotiation: How to Resolve Conflicts and Get the Best Out of Bargaining, Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty, and Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions written with John S. Hammond and Ralph L. Keeney. He died from Parkinson's disease on July 8, 2016 at the age of 92.

Bibliographic information

• Title: Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices Under Uncertainty; Behavioral science, quantitative methods; The Random House series in behavioral science: quantitative methods
• Author: Howard Raiffa
• Publisher: Random House, 1968
• Original from: the University of Michigan
• Digitized: Nov 6, 2007
• ISBN: 0394350197, 9780394350196
• Length: 309 pages