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Your Basic Problem
Analysis of Your Basic Problem
Summary and generalization
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7T-brlt acceptance set analyze assume basic problem Bayesian behavior branches chance forks chapter choice choose coin conditional probability consider cost decide decision analysis decision maker decision problem decision-flow diagram depend discuss draw emv'er example expected utility expected value experimentation and action exponential utility Figure form of analysis gamble give given indifference curves individuals interval joint conditional evaluation joint utility evaluation judgmental probability L. J. Savage labeled lectures likelihood function Likelihood Principle mathematical maximize monetary non-emv'er obtain optimal strategy option outcome pair Pareto-optimal partition path probabilities payoffs perfect information possible posterior posterior probability prefer prob probability assessments probability assignments probability distribution procedure red ball risk sharing sample shown in Fig situation statistical strategy for experimentation Suppose Table theory tion toss tree true proportion uncertain quantities uncertainty unidentified urn utility curve utility function utility value zero