## Decision Making Using Expert Opinion about the Occurrence of Uncertain EventsDepartment of Engineering-Economic Systems, Stanford University., 1974 - Decision making - 332 pages |

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### Contents

H THE USE OF A SINGLE EXPERT | 19 |

USING THE OPINIONS OF MORE THAN ONE EXPERT | 75 |

NONBAYESIAN METHODS FOR PROCESSING EXPERT OPINION | 110 |

### Common terms and phrases

assessment performance Bayesian processing Beta distribution binary symmetric event binary symmetric expert calibrate an expert chapter compute conditional probabilities continuous random variables convergence rates correct forecast curves deci decision boundary decision maker believes decision maker's expected decision maker's prior decision maker's utility decision maker's weight defined Delphi determine Dirichlet density dissertation encode equal Equation equivalent likelihoods exclusive and exhaustive expert usage expert's probability assignments Figure incremental utility level of expected likelihood function linear maker's a posteriori maker's expected utility maker's utility function minus unity monotonic Beta experts monotonic Beta likelihoods multiple expert nature decision problem normative Bayesian obtain occur optimal weight posteriori probability prior probability prob probability assessment probability distribution probability mass function processing expert opinion processing the opinions random variables second expert set of weights single expert sufficient statistics symmetric event forecaster symmetric monotonic Beta Theorem total expected utility update versus EJe weighted average method weighted average processing zero