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AUGUST 1987 page
SUMMARY page Iv
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adjustment assets assumed assumptions average baseline billion Canadian dollar capital inflows central banks chapter coefficient cooperative scenario crisis current account deficit current balance cyclical D&D model deterioration deutsche mark developing countries developing-country disequilibrium dollar dollar-denominated dollar's decline domestic demand domestic savings elasticities estimates Europe and Japan exchange markets expansionary exports external factors figure financial markets fiscal policies foreign exchange markets foreign savings Fred Bergsten Germany governments growth rate hard-landing scenario higher impact important income increase inflation intervention investment demand investment-savings balance Japan lower macroeconomic major monetary policy NAIRU negative nonoil OECD area OECD countries OECD Economic percent of GNP percentage change percentage points political private savings projected rates of return real interest rates real wage recession recovery reduced relative rest rise risk ROECD ROECD GNP sector shift strong structural budget deficit suggest surplus unemployment United Kingdom wellbeing world economy