Demographic Change in Germany: The Economic and Fiscal Consequences

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Ingrid Hamm, Helmut Seitz, Martin Werding
Springer Science & Business Media, Sep 27, 2007 - Political Science - 216 pages
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Just as one might be inclined to thinkthat every thing about demographic change has been already said and heard, a new dimension opens up. In fact, this is what makes the topic so fascinating. There is nothing trivial any longer about children, families, age, and care. Europe is undergoing profound demo graphic change. Each generation of children is quantitatively smaller than that of their parents; the propor tion of children and adolescents among the population is becoming smaller and smaller, while that of the elde rlyi s growing inexorably. Fewer and fewer people are marrying; more and more marriages are failing. Manyar eas of our society are affected by this; just think about the challenges faced by the social security systems as a result of demographic ageing. Politi cians and society are forced to adju st todem ographic change. Many people in Europe are concerned about these changes and are looking to politicians and researchers for solutions. Predictions are never easy, especially not about the future. Demographic indicators are among the safest guidelines into the unknown. Children un born today will certainly not contribute to social systems during the next years and will not pay back debt accumulated by previous generations. Not many politicians dare to negate the fact that this is about the future of our society. The media have contributed heavily to a general feeling that some thing has to be done. However, what exactly shouldbe done is widely dis puted.
 

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Contents

An Introduction Helmut Seitz Martin Werding
1
An Overview
3
Demographic Change in Germany Charlotte Höhn Ralf Mai Frank Micheel
8
2 The Demographic Development in Germany
9
21 Trends in Fertility
10
22 Trends in Mortality
13
23 Migration Dynamics
14
24 Demographic Balance
15
4 Projections for Individual Branches of Social Insurance
97
42 Public Health Insurance Basic Features
103
42 Public LongTerm Care Insurance
109
44 Unemployment Insurance
111
5 Sustainability of the Social Insurance System
112
51 Aging and General Government Fiscal Balances
113
52 Implicit Social Insurance Debt
116
53 The EPCs Sustainability Gap
120

3 Future Trends Until 2050
17
32 Population Decline
18
34 Can Population Aging Be Reversed by Demographic Instruments?
21
4 Regional Aspects of Population Dynamics
23
41 Fertility and Mortality
24
42 Internal Migration
26
43 Regional Patterns of Demographic Change
28
Growing or Diminishing Regional Disparities?
29
Challenge or Catastrophe?
31
References
33
The Effects of Aging on Labor Markets and Economic Growth Willi Leibfritz Werner Roeger
35
2 Main Determinants of Economic Growth
36
22 Past Growth Trends
38
3 Future Demographics and Growth
40
31 Impact Through Labor Supply
41
32 Impact Through Labor Productivity
43
4 LongTerm Growth Scenarios
50
41 Growth Scenarios by the OECD Baseline Scenario
51
42 Growth Scenarios by the EU Commission
55
5 Conclusions
61
References
63
The Impact of Global Aging on Capital Markets and Housing Axel BörschSupan
64
2 The Asset Meltdown Debate
66
3 Aging and the Markets for Productive Capital
69
32 The Development of Household Savings
73
33 Trends in Returns on Capital
76
34 Diversification Effects of Global Capital Markets
78
4 Aging and Housing Markets
80
5 Summary and Outlook
85
References
87
How to Pay for Pensions and Health Care? Martin Werding
89
2 Methodology
91
3 Assumptions and Intermediate Results
94
6 Policy Options
122
References
125
The Impact of Demographic Change on Fiscal Policy in Germany Helmut Seitz
129
2 Institutional Framework
130
3 Methodology
137
4 Data and Empirical Results
145
42 The Impact of Demographic Change on Public Expenditures 20042030
150
43 Building a More Complete Model
152
44 Simulation Results
157
5 Summary and Conclusions
161
References
162
Education and Fertility in Germany Michaela Kreyenfeld Dirk Konietzka
165
2 Education and Fertility
166
22 Germanys SocioPolitical Context
169
3 Data
171
4 Descriptive Results
172
5 Analysis of the EventHistory Model
176
52 Transitions to the Second and Third Child
178
6 Conclusions
180
References
183
Perspectives on the Political Governance of Demographic Change Johannes Meier
188
2 Demographic Challenges in Germany
190
22 Aging
191
23 Heterogeneity
192
3 Challenges for Governance of Demographic Change
195
4 Budget Consolidation as a Core Challenge
196
5 Key Factors of Success for Good Governance of Demographic Change
199
52 Implications for Germany
200
6 Conclusion
201
Subject Index
205
Name Index
212
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About the author (2007)

Ingrid Hamm is vice president of the media division at the Bertelsmann Foundation.