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A Simple Framework of Analysis
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2.0 percent adverse demand shock Bank of Spain central bank cointegrating commitment to EMU commodity prices competition in products contribution credibility effect decline in inflation dynamic forecast dynamic simulation equation estimation exchange rate expectation shocks expected inflation fall in inflation Figure food prices foreign inflation imperfect competition income in GDP increases induced a fall inflation declined inflation expectations inflation in Spain inflation rate inflation targeting inflationary expectations INTEREST RATES labor market lagged inflation latest disinflation episode Maastricht main factor monetary policy NAIRU non-oil commodities output gap percent in 1995 percent of GDP period Portugal and Italy positive supply shock price expectations product markets real wage growth reducing inflation relationship between inflation relative inflation relative price adjustments relative price shocks sacrifice ratio severe recession simple Phillips curve Spain's inflation stability standard Phillips curve structural unemployment supply side factors supply side shocks total inflation unemployment rate unit root variables wage growth fell