Do Campaigns Matter?
If elections are easily predicted and voting behavior is easily explained with just a few fundamental variables, it seems quite plausible to argue that campaigns don't matter. This book attempts to answer the question, "Do campaigns matter?" by analyzing changes in public opinion during and across several presidential election campaigns. The crux of the argument is that although the national political and economic context of the election is very important, campaigns also play a crucial role in determining election outcomes. In particular, campaign events, such as conventions and debates, are primarily responsible for changes in public opinion that occur during the campaign period. Using many different data sources from several presidential campaigns, this important volume demonstrates that election outcomes are jointly produced by campaigns and national conditions. Covering an important and neglected subject, Do Campaigns Matter? is essential for students in political science at both graduate and undergraduate levels. Its original research, imaginative approach at conceptualizing data, and excellent empirical analysis, make it a must read for researchers and professionals as well.
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Campaigns and Elections
Evidence Against Campaign Effects
A Model of Campaign Effects
The Effect of Debates
Campaigns National Conditions and U S Presidential Elections
Other editions - View all
1992 elections aggregate analysis Bill Clinton campaign effects campaign events campaign information campaign period campaign season campaign variables candidate evaluations candidate support candidate's changes in candidate Chapter Clinton coefficients convention bumps convention period Dan Quayle debate evaluations Democratic candidate Democratic convention dependent variable Dukakis effect of campaign effect of debates election campaign election outcomes electorate equilibrium level Figure focused forecasting model Gelman and King hypothesis important incumbent party individual-level influence June level of candidate level of support magnitude mean absolute error measure momentum Mondale national conditions noncampaign paign party identification pattern percentage points Perot political predispositions poll results preconvention predicted president presidential campaigns presidential elections presidential popularity press coverage public opinion Quayle Reagan relatively Republican convention respondents role of campaigns Ross Perot second debate surveys Table third debate tion U.S. Presidential Elections vice presidential debate vote decision vote intention voters voting behavior
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